Designing Scenarios for Resolving Identity Challenge in Iran (2021-2031)

The aim of this study was to investigate and design scenarios for resolving the identity challenge in the Islamic Republic of Iran. This study employed a futuristic approach to the category of identity. It counts as the strength and novelty of this study that distinguishes it from the previous ones in the literature. It is widely thought that in a world fraught with of uncertainties, having access to the panel and the possibility of achieving a clear vision of national and social identity as well as resolving the identity challenge can strengthen national cohesion and pave the way for development. Thus stated, the present research puts forth a question as what scenarios are liable to determine resolutionary approaches to break away from identity challenge in Iran 1410? In doing so, we used quantitative and qualitative methods along with Peter Schwartz's scripting method. Besides, insofar as data collection is concerned, we reviewed the research literature and documents in the form of library method and recruited the "Delphi-fuzzy method". What is more, we used structural analysis method grounded on interaction matrix tables which is based on "MicMac" software. For designing scenario, we employed  "Scenario Wizard" software.
Our findings indicate that there are 5 key uncertainties related to the identity Challenge in Iran, including "media development", "pluralism-tolerance", "educational system evolution", "political culture" and "development and efficiency". Accordingly, there are three proposed scenarios such as "exclusivism", "breaking away from the identity Challenge", and the scenario of "the continuation of the current situation with the highest degree of probability."