Futures Studies of National Identity in Time Horizen 1407

The national identity is one of the basic concepts of the social political order, which has the important role of national solidarity and the cohesion of the political system in various fields of society. On the one hand, in the light of the breakthrough advancement of emerging technologies and the rapid changes of the globalization, policy makers and leaders, in spite of the inevitable changes in internationalization, maintain their country safe from serious threats and try to draw a desirable and low-risk future for their country. The purpose of this article is to pursue the changes of the national identity over the next 10 years. The methods like Delphi pseudo, interviews, environmental scanning, cross-impact analysis, and Scenario Writing of futures studies' techniques are used in this paper to develop national identity scenarios in the next 10 years' horizons. The findings of this paper include optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic triple scenarios and show that modern identity, development and efficiency, tolerance are key uncertainties affecting Iran's national identity for the next ten years.